{"id":13930,"date":"2026-09-22T09:50:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T02:50:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/?p=13930"},"modified":"2026-09-22T09:50:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T02:50:11","slug":"%e0%b8%84%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%87%e0%b8%9b%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%99%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%a1%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%94%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a3%e0%b8%b7%e0%b8%ad-panama-canal-shipping-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/%e0%b8%84%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%ad%e0%b8%87%e0%b8%9b%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%99%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%a1%e0%b8%b2%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%94%e0%b9%80%e0%b8%a3%e0%b8%b7%e0%b8%ad-panama-canal-shipping-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Panama Canal reduces ship volume: What should Thai SMEs check before booking containers to the US East Coast?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you&#039;re issuing a quote for shipping goods to the east coast of the United States right now, the word... <strong>The Panama Canal reduces ship capacity.<\/strong> This shouldn&#039;t be immediately interpreted as &quot;freight rates must increase&quot; or &quot;delivery will be delayed,&quot; but rather used as a signal to recheck the actual container route, sales conditions, and available time before confirming prices with customers, as the impact can vary significantly depending on the shipping line, schedule, and destination port.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-rank-math-toc-block\">\n<p><strong>list of contents<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#\u0e04\u0e25\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e1b\u0e32\u0e19\u0e32\u0e21\u0e32\u0e25\u0e14\u0e40\u0e23\u0e37\u0e2d-\u0e41\u0e15\u0e48\u0e22\u0e31\u0e07\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e43\u0e0a\u0e48\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e02\u0e36\u0e49\u0e19\u0e23\u0e32\u0e04\u0e32\u0e17\u0e38\u0e01\u0e40\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e27\">The Panama Canal has reduced prices for ships, but it hasn&#039;t increased prices for all trips yet.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e15\u0e38\u0e43\u0e14\u0e19\u0e49\u0e33\u0e08\u0e37\u0e14\u0e08\u0e36\u0e07\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e25\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e19\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e47\u0e19\u0e04\u0e27\u0e32\u0e21\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e07\u0e14\u0e49\u0e32\u0e19\u0e02\u0e19\u0e2a\u0e48\u0e07\">Why does freshwater become a transport risk?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#\u0e1c\u0e39\u0e49\u0e2a\u0e48\u0e07\u0e2d\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e44\u0e17\u0e22\u0e44\u0e1b-us-east-coast-\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e07\u0e15\u0e23\u0e07\u0e08\u0e38\u0e14\u0e44\u0e2b\u0e19\">What are the risks faced by Thai exporters to the US East Coast?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#cif-ddp-\u0e41\u0e25\u0e30-fob-\u0e23\u0e31\u0e1a\u0e1c\u0e25\u0e01\u0e23\u0e30\u0e17\u0e1a\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e21\u0e37\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e01\u0e31\u0e19\">CIF, DDP, and FOB prices are affected differently.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#\u0e40\u0e17\u0e35\u0e22\u0e1a\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e49\u0e19\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e2a\u0e33\u0e23\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e14\u0e49\u0e27\u0e22\u0e15\u0e49\u0e19\u0e17\u0e38\u0e19\u0e23\u0e27\u0e21-\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e43\u0e0a\u0e48\u0e04\u0e48\u0e32\u0e23\u0e30\u0e27\u0e32\u0e07\">Compare alternative routes using total cost, not freight charges.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#\u0e2a\u0e31\u0e0d\u0e0d\u0e32\u0e13\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e04\u0e27\u0e23\u0e15\u0e34\u0e14\u0e15\u0e32\u0e21\u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e23\u0e32\u0e04\u0e32\u0e02\u0e19\u0e2a\u0e48\u0e07\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e25\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e19\">Signals to watch for before shipping prices change.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#checklist-\u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e08\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e15\u0e39\u0e49\u0e44\u0e1b\u0e1d\u0e31\u0e48\u0e07\u0e15\u0e30\u0e27\u0e31\u0e19\u0e2d\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e2a\u0e2b\u0e23\u0e31\u0e10\u0e2f\">Checklist before booking a container to the US East Coast.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#\u0e2a\u0e23\u0e38\u0e1b\u0e2a\u0e34\u0e48\u0e07\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e04\u0e27\u0e23\u0e17\u0e33\u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e23\u0e31\u0e1a-po-\u0e23\u0e2d\u0e1a\u0e16\u0e31\u0e14\u0e44\u0e1b\">Summary of what to do before receiving the next Purchase Order (PO).<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The key point is that the Panama Canal plans to reduce the average number of ships passing through in October to 29.5 vessels per day from 36 vessels in August, a reduction of 181 TP3T, according to the draft plan submitted to the Panamanian parliament. In September, the number was already reduced from 36 to 32 vessels per day. This is a fact regarding capacity, but it is not yet evidence that all bookings from Thailand will be postponed or charged the same increased price.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>News status:<\/strong> This is a plan to reduce the number of ships passing through the canal, not an announcement of a fare increase for all shipping lines.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Main risks:<\/strong> Queue, ETA uncertainty, and slot costs may increase before their effects are reflected in the quotation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Direct recipients:<\/strong> For sellers offering CIF\/DDP contracts and goods with fixed delivery dates, careful review of the contract is necessary.<\/li>\n<li><strong>What to do:<\/strong> Please provide quotes for multiple routes, including transit time, free time, and price expiration date, all in the same package.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"\u0e04\u0e25\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e1b\u0e32\u0e19\u0e32\u0e21\u0e32\u0e25\u0e14\u0e40\u0e23\u0e37\u0e2d-\u0e41\u0e15\u0e48\u0e22\u0e31\u0e07\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e43\u0e0a\u0e48\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e02\u0e36\u0e49\u0e19\u0e23\u0e32\u0e04\u0e32\u0e17\u0e38\u0e01\u0e40\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e27\">The Panama Canal has reduced prices for ships, but it hasn&#039;t increased prices for all trips yet.<\/h2>\n<p>The Guardian and AFP reported that the October plan would allow an average of 29.5 vessels per day to pass, a decrease of 18% from 36 vessels in August. In September, officials had already reduced that number from 36 to 32 vessels per day. This figure reflects that vessel capacity is being squeezed, but it doesn&#039;t specify whether your container is on one of the affected voyages.<\/p>\n<p>The same report indicates that in August, ships had an average waiting time of 10 days to enter the canal, and one container ship reportedly paid approximately US$4 million to skip the queue through the bidding system. These figures are specific incidents and should not be directly added to the cost of Thai containers. What applies to SMEs is understanding that when slots are scarce, the cost of expediting the queue and the uncertainty can increase faster than the standard price.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e15\u0e38\u0e43\u0e14\u0e19\u0e49\u0e33\u0e08\u0e37\u0e14\u0e08\u0e36\u0e07\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e25\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e19\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e47\u0e19\u0e04\u0e27\u0e32\u0e21\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e07\u0e14\u0e49\u0e32\u0e19\u0e02\u0e19\u0e2a\u0e48\u0e07\">Why does freshwater become a transport risk?<\/h2>\n<p>The Panama Canal doesn&#039;t operate solely on seawater. Its locking system uses freshwater to raise ships from sea level into the Gatoun Lake and lower them back down on the other side. When rainfall is lower than expected and water levels are unsuitable for navigation, the canal authorities can limit the number of voyages or specify vessel requirements to maintain safety and manage available water.<\/p>\n<p>From a supply chain perspective, the mechanism follows this sequence: Insufficient water supply reduces slot availability. This then increases the queue and the value of slots available for priority hopping. Shipping lines may adjust schedules, skip ports, or change routes. Finally, exporters experience the effects through wider ETAs, altered cut-off times, or shorter all-in prices. Not all of these factors occur simultaneously.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"\u0e1c\u0e39\u0e49\u0e2a\u0e48\u0e07\u0e2d\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e44\u0e17\u0e22\u0e44\u0e1b-us-east-coast-\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e07\u0e15\u0e23\u0e07\u0e08\u0e38\u0e14\u0e44\u0e2b\u0e19\">What are the risks faced by Thai exporters to the US East Coast?<\/h2>\n<p>The risk is most apparent when your route actually passes through the Panama Canal, when goods have fixed delivery dates, or when the value of the delay exceeds the freight difference, such as parts waiting at the destination factory, seasonal goods, or orders with penalties. If the booking uses west coast US ports and then connects by rail, the canal risk may be reduced, but it will shift to rail and transshipment risks instead.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#039;t just look at &quot;Bangkok\u2013New York&quot; on the quote, because the actual route may vary depending on the shipping line&#039;s service. You should ask clearly which canals the ship passes through, where transshipments occur, whether the transit time is an average or the latest schedule, and under what conditions the carrier has the right to change the route or charge additional surcharges. Answers to these questions have a much greater impact on accepting a purchase order than a single headline.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cif-ddp-\u0e41\u0e25\u0e30-fob-\u0e23\u0e31\u0e1a\u0e1c\u0e25\u0e01\u0e23\u0e30\u0e17\u0e1a\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e40\u0e2b\u0e21\u0e37\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e01\u0e31\u0e19\">CIF, DDP, and FOB prices are affected differently.<\/h2>\n<p>If you sell on a CIF or DDP basis, the shipping costs and the risk of quote expiration may fall more on your side, especially when the quotation is locked in baht or dollars for several weeks, but the freight and surcharges change before the actual booking. Therefore, you should set the price expiration date, freight adjustment conditions, and destination charge limits to match the forwarder&#039;s quote.<\/p>\n<p>In FOB sales, the buyer primarily manages freight charges, but the seller still faces risks from delays in cut-off times, factory arrears, storage costs, or buyer requests to postpone production dates. This may mean that FOB doesn&#039;t eliminate all risk, only shifts some responsibility. Therefore, before confirming a delivery date, it&#039;s advisable to request a booking window and contingency plan in writing from the buyer.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"\u0e40\u0e17\u0e35\u0e22\u0e1a\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e49\u0e19\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e2a\u0e33\u0e23\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e14\u0e49\u0e27\u0e22\u0e15\u0e49\u0e19\u0e17\u0e38\u0e19\u0e23\u0e27\u0e21-\u0e44\u0e21\u0e48\u0e43\u0e0a\u0e48\u0e04\u0e48\u0e32\u0e23\u0e30\u0e27\u0e32\u0e07\">Compare alternative routes using total cost, not freight charges.<\/h2>\n<p>Alternatives like the US West Coast followed by rail or a detour around the Suez Canal could reduce reliance on the Panama Canal, but there&#039;s no single answer to which route is more cost-effective. You need to compare ocean freight, rail or truck costs, transshipment, insurance, free time, demurrage risk, and the value of lost days, while using quotes for the same time period to avoid comparing prices across different markets.<\/p>\n<p>For low-profit margin goods, choosing a more expensive route to save time may not be worthwhile. However, for critical components or seasonal products, paying more for a more stable ETA may minimize business losses. From a business perspective, decisions should consider the cost of delay along with freight costs, not simply choosing the lowest freight figure automatically.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"\u0e2a\u0e31\u0e0d\u0e0d\u0e32\u0e13\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e04\u0e27\u0e23\u0e15\u0e34\u0e14\u0e15\u0e32\u0e21\u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e23\u0e32\u0e04\u0e32\u0e02\u0e19\u0e2a\u0e48\u0e07\u0e40\u0e1b\u0e25\u0e35\u0e48\u0e22\u0e19\">Signals to watch for before shipping prices change.<\/h2>\n<p>Things to watch include actual ship throughput, waiting times at the canal, draft restrictions, carrier schedule changes, and spot quote expiration, as these figures are closer to decision-making than broad estimates found on the website. <a href=\"https:\/\/pancanal.com\/proyectos-institucionales\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"The Panama Canal project.\">Panama Canal Authority<\/a> It also indicates that water resource and reservoir management projects are long-term endeavors, so one should not assume that water risks will disappear after just a short period of rainfall.<\/p>\n<p>However, it is not yet possible to conclude what rate increase the Asia\u2013US East Coast freight rate will be based solely on this plan. Shipping prices still depend on demand, shipping line capacity, events on other routes, and competition among carriers. A safer approach to pricing is to use quotes with complete terms and conditions and to pre-define requote points.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"checklist-\u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e08\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e15\u0e39\u0e49\u0e44\u0e1b\u0e1d\u0e31\u0e48\u0e07\u0e15\u0e30\u0e27\u0e31\u0e19\u0e2d\u0e2d\u0e01\u0e2a\u0e2b\u0e23\u0e31\u0e10\u0e2f\">Checklist before booking a container to the US East Coast.<\/h2>\n<p>The following checklist helps sales, purchasing, and logistics teams use the same set of information before accepting orders. It&#039;s crucial to record the quote date and the confirming party every time, as capacity and shipping schedules may change faster than price review cycles.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Confirm with Forwarder whether the offered service actually goes through the Panama Canal or uses an alternative route.<\/li>\n<li>Please provide the most recent transit time along with the range of error, not just the average shown in the brochure.<\/li>\n<li>Compare the all-in cost of at least two routes, including rail, truck, surcharge, and destination charges.<\/li>\n<li>Check the quote expiration date, cut-off time, free time, and pricing adjustment conditions when the schedule changes.<\/li>\n<li>Calculate the cost of delay per day for your shipment to determine if you should pay extra for alternative routes.<\/li>\n<li>Review the Incoterms to determine which party is responsible for Freight, Delay, Storage, and emergency costs.<\/li>\n<li>Add a buffer on the delivery date and inform the buyer in installments; do not use a single, unconditional ETA.<\/li>\n<li>Prepare a plan to split shipments or send partial shipments by air only in cases where the value of delays is high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Exporters who need to compare international shipping methods can use general reference information from... <a href=\"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"SME SHIPPING\">SME SHIPPING<\/a> While it&#039;s advisable to ask questions of the service provider, the chosen route should primarily be based on the booking, quote, and the latest terms and conditions of that shipment.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"\u0e2a\u0e23\u0e38\u0e1b\u0e2a\u0e34\u0e48\u0e07\u0e17\u0e35\u0e48\u0e04\u0e27\u0e23\u0e17\u0e33\u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e23\u0e31\u0e1a-po-\u0e23\u0e2d\u0e1a\u0e16\u0e31\u0e14\u0e44\u0e1b\">Summary of what to do before receiving the next Purchase Order (PO).<\/h2>\n<p>The plan to reduce shipping voyages through the Panama Canal is a risk that should be managed, not a reason to rush into rerouting every container. What can be done immediately is to request quotes for multiple routes, compare total costs, examine Incoterms and delivery conditions, check shelf-life prices, and add buffers to account for the delay value of each type of cargo.<\/p>\n<p>From a supply chain perspective, the winner isn&#039;t the one who accurately predicts freight rates, but rather the one who knows where in the contract and shipping schedule can change and prepares alternatives before the actual queue occurs. Therefore, you should make decisions based on current booking routes, not on the assumption that the Panama Canal will affect all shipments equally.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/sep\/15\/panama-canal-traffic-cut-trade-drought-el-nino\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Panama canal traffic facing further cuts as drought from El Ni\u00f1o worsens\">The Guardian \/ AFP<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0e41\u0e1c\u0e19\u0e25\u0e14\u0e08\u0e33\u0e19\u0e27\u0e19\u0e40\u0e23\u0e37\u0e2d\u0e1c\u0e48\u0e32\u0e19\u0e04\u0e25\u0e2d\u0e07\u0e1b\u0e32\u0e19\u0e32\u0e21\u0e32\u0e2d\u0e32\u0e08\u0e17\u0e33\u0e43\u0e2b\u0e49\u0e40\u0e27\u0e25\u0e32\u0e40\u0e14\u0e34\u0e19\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e41\u0e25\u0e30\u0e15\u0e49\u0e19\u0e17\u0e38\u0e19\u0e1a\u0e32\u0e07\u0e40\u0e2a\u0e49\u0e19\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e1c\u0e31\u0e19\u0e1c\u0e27\u0e19 \u0e1a\u0e17\u0e04\u0e27\u0e32\u0e21\u0e19\u0e35\u0e49\u0e0a\u0e48\u0e27\u0e22 SME \u0e44\u0e17\u0e22\u0e40\u0e0a\u0e47\u0e01 Route, Incoterm, Buffer \u0e41\u0e25\u0e30 Quote \u0e01\u0e48\u0e2d\u0e19\u0e23\u0e31\u0e1a PO<\/p>","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":13932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_angie_page":false,"page_builder":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[237],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trade-radar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13930"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13930\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13933,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13930\/revisions\/13933"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smeshipping.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}